Two years after the TPNW was opened for signature, the Ban Monitor identifies a total of 135 states, or more than two thirds of the world’s states, as “TPNW supporters”. These are states that have signed, ratified, acceded to and/ or voted in favour of the TPNW at the UN.
As of 1 October 2019, 80 states had adhered to or signed the TPNW. Seventy-nine states had signed, of which 31 had also ratified. In addition, one state – Cook Islands – had acceded. Thus, 32 states have adhered to the TPNW, and a further 48 states are signatories that have not yet ratified the Treaty.
In addition, the Ban Monitor includes among the TPNW supporters the category “other supporters”, which consists of an additional 55 states that have not yet signed or adhered to the Treaty, but which adopted the TPNW at the UN diplomatic conference in July 2017 and/or voted yes on the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW in 2018. If a state that voted in favour of the adoption of the TPNW later votes against or abstains on the TPNW resolution at the UN General Assembly, the Ban Monitor will remove it from the “other supporters” category.
The 55 other supporters make up the most immediate potential for new signatories to the TPNW. Many have already started the process to sign. For details about the level of backing that the TPNW has in the respective states in the other-supporters category, see the State Profiles. The Ban Monitor encourages those states that have not yet done so to move swiftly to full adherence.
A total of 17 states (8.6% of the global total) are categorised by the Ban Monitor as “undecided”. This means that they have neither signed or adhered to the TPNW nor declared that they will not do so, and their last vote in the UN was not in favour of or against the TPNW.
The current “undecided” states all have nuclear-weapon-free security strategies but are otherwise a mixed group. Some have the Treaty under review domestically. Others are in fact already making preparations to sign. Yet others are, for various reasons, including internal challenges, at this stage not considering whether to join the Treaty or not.
Forty-five states (22.8%) are categorised as “non- supporters” of the TPNW, meaning that they have taken a stance against signing or adhering to the Treaty. The non- supporters comprise the nine nuclear-armed states and all of the current nuclear-weapon-complicit states. The category also includes North Macedonia, which is in the process of acceding to NATO and joined the NATO states in voting against the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW in 2018. Finally, the Ban Monitor includes among the non-supporters the following four states with nuclear-weapon-free security strategies: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Micronesia, Monaco, and Sweden. The first three states voted against the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW in 2018. Sweden voted in favour of adopting the TPNW in 2017 but then abstained on the UN General Assembly resolution in 2018, before announcing in July 2019 that it would “refrain from signing or pursuing ratification of the TPNW at the present time”. The Government also indicated, however, that Sweden might reassess its position following the NPT review conference in 2020.
The 45 non-supporters are not a uniform group. Most of them voted against the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW in 2018, while others, like Sweden, abstained. Interestingly, both Belarus and Armenia – the only two states that have explicit or implicit extended-nuclear- deterrence arrangements with Russia – both abstained on this resolution. By contrast, all the NATO states and states in bilateral extended-nuclear-deterrence arrangements with the United States voted against. Armenia also participated in the negotiations on the TPNW in 2017 but did not cast a vote on the adoption of the Treaty.
Political debate about the merits of the TPNW is ongoing in several of the non-supporter states. Information on the latest developments in the states in the non-supporters category can be found in their respective State profiles.