Press release 4 March 2025: The number of nuclear weapons ready for use continues to increase

The Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor also reports that while the total number of nuclear warheads has slowly decreased since the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was adopted in 2017 because of old warheads being retired, the number available for use has steadily increased from 9,272 in 2017.

"This upward trajectory is expected to continue as countries modernise and, in some cases, expand their arsenals, unless there is a breakthrough in arms control and disarmament efforts”, said Hans M. Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists and one of the main contributors to the report.

Norwegian People's Aid, a member of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, emphasised that all this is happening against a background of rising geopolitical tensions involving nuclear-armed states with conflicts over Ukraine and in the Middle East, as well as grave tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which is why nuclear experts see the risk nuclear weapons could be used as being as high – if not higher – as during the Cold War.

This is reflected in the Ban Monitor which finds that in contravention to the TPNW, Russia and North Korea both threatened to use nuclear weapons last year. Pyongyang overtly threated to use them against South Korea, while Moscow implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

UN Nuclear ban treaty growing in strength

In the face of this, the positive news from the report is that the TPNW continues to grow in strength and influence.

Four more countries, Indonesia, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, and Solomon Islands ratified the treaty in 2024. This means half of all eligible states have now either signed, ratified or acceded to the treaty. Of the 24 that have signed but not yet ratified, several reported that their domestic ratification processes were at an advanced stage indicating there could be further progress in 2025. In addition, the Ban Monitor shows that 70% of all UN members are now supportive of the treaty, and that 80% of the population of the world’s 188 non-nuclear-armed states is represented by governments that support the TPNW.

The states parties to the TPNW continue to challenge the doctrine of nuclear deterrence, calling it out as a highly precarious security logic that is fraught with unreliable assumptions and which is an existential risk to the entire planet.

The Secretary General of Norwegian People's Aid, Raymond Johansen, said: “At a time when peace is at a premium and the world is roiled by tensions and a rising nuclear threat, the TPNW is the bright spot on the horizon. Membership of the treaty continues to grow, reinforcing the global norm against nuclear weapons and increasing the stigmatisation of these weapons and of their use as tools of statecraft”.

Obstacles to disarmament

The Monitor identifies not only the nine nuclear-armed states, but also the 34 so-called nuclear umbrella states, as obstacles to disarmament because they are standing in the way of progress towards the universalisation of the TPNW and agreement on complete nuclear disarmament, while maintaining their nuclear weapons-based defence postures that pose an unacceptable risk to all countries.

The Executive Director of ICAN, Melissa Parke, welcomed the report’s publication: “This latest edition of the Ban Monitor demonstrates both the problem we face – the growing number of nuclear weapons ready to be used – and the solution – the growing international support for the TPNW. It is the only treaty that outlaws nuclear weapons and provides an established pathway to fair and verifiable disarmament. It is time for the nuclear-armed states and their pro-nuclear allies to drop their opposition to it and join the global majority”.

The report further shows how European countries stand out as a significant impediment to further progress on nuclear disarmament despite all of them being committed to it under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The authors call on the European Union to initiate processes to reflect on and address this. They also point out that in some umbrella states opposed to the TPNW there is an ongoing discussion on the merits of the treaty which suggests a change in policy is possible

ENDS

If you would like an embargoed copy of the report or more information or for interview requests contact:

Alistair Burnett, Head of Media, ICAN +41 78 238 7179 alistair@icanw.org