The status of the TPNW
As of 12 January 2021, the TPNW has 51 states parties while a further 37 states have signed but not yet ratified. Thus, in total, 88 states (or 44.7% of all states) are either states parties or signatories to the Treaty. This means that we are approaching a situation where half of all states will have accepted binding obligations in international law under the TPNW.
Of the 109 states that at the end of 2020 were not states parties or signatories to the TPNW, 50 states are identified by the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor as ‘other supporters’, on the basis that their most recent vote in the United Nations on the TPNW was in favour of the Treaty. Grouped together as ‘TPNW supporters’, the states parties, signatories, and other supporters total 138 states, or 70% of all states.
The criteria for the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor’s categorisation of states by their position on the TPNW are explained in the table below.
Criteria for TPNW support
| Number | Category | Criterion |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | States parties | States that have either signed and ratified or have acceded to the TPNW. |
| 2 | Signatories | States that have signed the TPNW but not yet ratified it. |
| 3 | Other supporters | States that are not in category 1 or 2 but whose most recent vote in the UN on the TPNW (on the adoption of the Treaty on 7 July 2017 or on the subsequent annual UN General Assembly resolutions on the TPNW) was 'yes'. |
| 4 | Undecided | All states that are not in category 1 or 2 and whose most recent vote in the UN on the TPNW (on the adoption of the Treaty on 7 July 2017 or on the subsequent annual UN General Assembly resolutions on the TPNW) was an abstention, or that never participated in such a vote. |
| 5 | Opposed | All states that are not in category 1 or 2 and whose most recent vote in the UN on the TPNW (on the adoption of the Treaty on 7 July 2017 or on the subsequent annual UN General Assembly resolutions on the TPNW) was 'no' |
Other supporters
The ‘other supporters’ category consists, for the most part, of states that have not yet signed or adhered to the Treaty but which voted in favour of adopting the TPNW at the UN diplomatic conference in July 2017 and have continued to vote in favour of the annual UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW. The category also includes some states that did not participate in the negotiations or did not vote when the Treaty was adopted in 2017, but which have subsequently expressed their support by voting in favour of the annual resolution. The states in the other-supporters category make up the most immediate potential for new signatories to the TPNW. Indeed, many of this group have already started the process to adhere to the Treaty. For details about the level of backing for the TPNW in the respective states in the other-supporters category, see the state profiles section of this website.
Undecided states
The states categorised as ‘undecided’ are a mixed group of states, spread out across all five continents. Some of the undecided states have the Treaty under review domestically. Certain other states seem to be choosing to stay neutral on the TPNW for the time being. Finally, some states are for various reasons, including internal challenges, currently not considering whether to join the Treaty. Most of the undecided states already have nuclear- weapon-free security policies. Armenia and Belarus – the only two states that have arrangements of extended nuclear deterrence with Russia – are however also in this category . Both states abstained on the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW in 2018, 2019, and 2020. By contrast, all the umbrella states in NATO and the three states with bilateral arrangements of extended nuclear deterrence with the United States (Australia, Japan, South Korea) have thus far consistently voted against the TPNW resolution in the UN General Assembly.
Opposed states
This category consists of the nine nuclear-armed states and all of the 30 states with arrangements of extended nuclear deterrence with the United States (while, as mentioned above, the two states with arrangements of extended nuclear deterrence with Russia – Belarus and Armenia – are in the undecided category). It also comprises the only three states with nuclear-weapon-free security strategies that have voted against the UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW, in both 2018, 2019, and 2020: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Micronesia, and Monaco. Political debate about the merits of the TPNW is ongoing in several of the opposed states. More information on the latest developments in the states in the opposed category can be found in their respective state profiles on this website.
The TPNW enters into force and becomes international law on 22 January 2021, 90 days after it reached the requisite 50 ratifications/accessions. Honduras became the 50th state to bring the TPNW into force, when it deposited its instrument of ratification with the UN Secretary-General on the 75th anniversary of the organization’s establishment: 24 October 2020.
In alphabetical order, the following states were the first 50 states ratifying or acceding to the TPNW, thereby triggering the Treaty’s entry into force:
Antigua and Barbuda, Austria, Bangladesh, Belize, Bolivia, Botswana, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, El Salvador, Ecuador, Fiji, Gambia, Guyana, Holy See, Honduras, Ireland, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Namibia, Nauru, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Niue, Palau, Palestine, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, South Africa, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vanuatu, Viet Nam.
• Of the 122 states that voted yes on the adoption of the TPNW at the end of the negotiations in the UN on 7 July 2017, 62.3% (76 states) had by the end of 2020 proceeded to become either a state party or a signatory to the TPNW and thus accepted legally binding obligations under the Treaty.
• Of the remaining 37.7%, all but five (see below) have continued to vote yes on the annual UN General Assembly resolution on the TPNW and are therefore listed by the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor as other supporters.
• Five states (Argentina, Marshall Islands, Sweden, Switzerland, and Tonga) have abstained on all or the latest of the UN General Assembly resolutions on the TPNW and are therefore listed as undecided.
• None of the states that adopted the TPNW in 2017 has ever voted against the annual UN General Assembly resolutions on the TPNW.
• By the end of 2020, a total of 12 states that did not take part in the adoption of the TPNW in 2017 had also joined the Treaty as states parties or have signed it: Central African Republic, Comoros, Cook Islands, Dominica, Libya, Maldives, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, Tuvalu, and Zambia.
Speed of ratification and accession
In the course of 2020, the following 17 states ratified or acceded to the TPNW: Belize, Benin, Botswana, Fiji, Honduras, Ireland, Jamaica, Lesotho, Malta, Malaysia, Namibia, Nauru, Nigeria, Niue, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Tuvalu.
The TPNW’s speed of ratification and accession is – despite obstructionism from nuclear-armed states – on average the same as for the other treaties on weapons of mass destruction (WMD): the NPT, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). As of 20 December 2020, exactly three years and three months after the TPNW opened for signature, 51 states had ratified or acceded to the TPNW. The NPT had 66 ratifications and accessions in the same time period, the BWC 53, the CWC 49, and the CTBT 51.
Level of signatures
In the course of 2020, the following six states signed the TPNW: Belize, Malta, Mozambique, Niger, Sudan, Zimbabwe. As shown by the chart on the right, the number of states that have signed the TPNW was still low compared to all of the other WMD treaties at 39 months after opening for signature.
According to ICAN, which works directly with states on their plans for signature and ratification of and accession to the TPNW, the COVID-19 pandemic has certainly caused delays in adherence in some states. Indeed, for a few months, signature of the Treaty was not possible due to COVID-19 restrictions at UN Headquarters. Consideration of the Treaty by cabinets of ministers and by legislatures has, in many cases, been put on hold while the impacts of the pandemic are addressed. Many parliaments have been meeting virtually, and in some cases only for the purpose of addressing the pandemic.
Note that under Article IX(1) of the NPT, signature of the treaty was only possible until its entry into force. The same applies to the BWC (Article XIV(1)), the CWC (Article XVIII), and the CTBT (Article XI). The CTBT of course is not yet in force so signature continues to be possible. The TPNW can be signed also after entry into force.
Support by region
Breaking down the TPNW supporters by region, the following chart shows that support for the TPNW is already high in all regions of the world apart from Europe. All regions have a small group of undecided states. The highest number of opposed states is in Europe. For more details, see the regional maps below.
TPNW support by region
Africa
The Americas
Asia
Europe
Oceania