The prohibitions of the TPNW
All 59 states parties and 30 signatories to the TPNW were compliant with all of the prohibitions of the TPNW throughout 2021. Of the states not yet party to the Treaty, the conduct of 64 states was fully compatible with the prohibitions, which means they can adhere to the TPNW without making any changes to their existing policies and practices. A minority, consisting of 42 states not party (21%), continued to engage in conduct that was not compatible with one or more of the prohibitions. In addition, Iran and Saudi Arabia were again recorded as states of concern.
The heart of the TPNW is its Article 1, which contains the Treaty’s prohibitions. They apply at all places and in all circumstances, including during armed conflict. In the menu choices on the left, the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor sets out interpretations of each of the prohibitions and evaluates the extent to which all states — regardless of whether they have consented to be bound by the Treaty — act in accordance with them or not. States parties and signatories are categorized as either ‘compliant’ or ‘not compliant’, whereas states not party are categorized as either ‘compatible’ or ‘not compatible’. Where a state has been assessed to be ‘of concern’, this means that worrying developments in the state warrant close attention. The conclusion of the assessments for each respective state can be found in the state profiles on this website.
As illustrated in the chart above, the conduct of a total of 153 states (equating to almost 78% of the global total) was either compliant or compatible, respectively, with all of the prohibitions of the TPNW. The 42 states with conduct that was not compatible with one or more of the prohibitions in the TPNW are first and foremost the 9 nuclear-armed states and the 32 umbrella states, but also one state — the Marshall Islands — that has a nuclear-weapon-free security policy. Every state may lawfully sign and ratify the TPNW, but these 42 states, would have to make varying degrees of changes to their existing policies and practices in order to meet the demands of the Treaty.
Each State Party undertakes never under any circumstances to:
(a) Develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices;
(b) Transfer to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons or explosive devices directly or indirectly;
(c) Receive the transfer of or control over nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices directly or indirectly;
(d) Use or threaten to use nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices;
(e) Assist, encourage or induce, in any way, anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Treaty;
(f) Seek or receive any assistance, in any way, from anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Treaty;
(g) Allow any stationing, installation or deployment of any nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices in its territory or at any place under its jurisdiction or control.
| State category | Total | States |
|---|---|---|
| Compliant states parties and signatories | 89 | Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Austria, Bangladesh, Belize, Benin, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Cambodia, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chile, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, DR Congo, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, Gambia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea- Bissau, Guyana, Holy See, Honduras, Indonesia, Ireland, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Libya, Liechtenstein, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Palau, Palestine, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, Uruguay, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Zambia, Zimbabwe. |
| States not party with policies and practices that were compatible | 64 | Afghanistan, Andorra, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Cyprus, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Finland, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Monaco, Morocco, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen. |
| States not party with policies and practices that were not compatible | 42 | Armenia, Albania, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Italy, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Marshall Islands, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Korea, North Macedonia, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, |
| States not party with policies and practices that were of concern | 2 | Iran, Saudi Arabia. |
Compliance and compatibility by prohibition
The chart below disaggregates compliance and compatibility for each of the Article 1 prohibitions. Most importantly, the conduct of the nine nuclear-armed states was not compatible with either the prohibition on developing, producing, manufacturing, or acquiring nuclear weapons, or the prohibition on possessing or stockpiling them. The prohibition in Article 1(1)(e) on assisting, encouraging, or inducing prohibited acts, however, stands out as the one where the greatest number of states have policies and practices that are not compatible. The Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor found that a total of 36 states assisted, encouraged, or induced acts in 2021 that are prohibited by the
TPNW: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Marshall Islands, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
For more information on compliance and compatibility by prohibition, see the respective prohibitions in the menu on the left and the state profiles on this website.
The TPNW does not explicitly prohibit or even mention ‘nuclear deterrence’. The reason for this is that deterrence is not a specific act or behaviour, but a psychological state that may or may not exist inside an adversary’s head. However, the TPNW prohibits a range of specific actions that are typically enacted with the aim of fostering deterrence, including possessing nuclear weapons, hosting nuclear weapons, threatening to use nuclear weapons, or assisting or encouraging other states to engage in such behaviour. Crucially, these behaviours are prohibited irrespective of whether they succeed in fostering ‘deterrence’ in the minds of potential adversaries.
Compliance and compatibility by region
As the chart above shows, Europe is the region with the most states whose conduct conflicts with the TPNW. A total of 30 of the 47 states in Europe (63%) currently maintain policies and practices that are not compatible with one or more of the prohibitions in Article 1 of the TPNW. In Africa, all of the 54 states recognized by the United Nations have been found to be fully compliant or compatible. In the other regions, compliance and compatibility with the TPNW is also generally high. In the Americas, only 2 of the 35 states across the region (Canada and the United States) engage in conduct which is not compatible with the Treaty. In Asia, where most of the nuclear-armed states are located, 8 of the 45 states maintain policies and practices that are not compatible: Armenia, China, India, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, and South Korea. In addition, the two states listed as being ‘of concern’ — Iran and Saudi Arabia — are both located in Asia. In Oceania, Australia and the Marshall Islands are the two states with policies and practices that are not fully compatible with the TPNW among the 16 states in the region.