Setting the deadline for nuclear weapon destruction under the TPNW
The First Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW will be obligated to set the deadlines for the destruction of a state party’s nuclear weapons and for the removal of a foreign state’s nuclear weapons (hosting arrangements). The Ban Monitor recommends that the First Meeting of States Parties consider setting a deadline of ten years for the destruction of all nuclear weapons, renewable upon request to the other states parties where necessary.
A far shorter deadline for removal of foreign nuclear weapons (hosting arrangements) – for example, no more than three years – would seem appropriate.
Zia Mian and Moritz Kütt at Princeton University have recently published an article on this topic in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. In the article Setting the Deadline for Nuclear Weapon Destruction Under the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, they use publicly available information on the size and evolution of nuclear weapon stockpiles and declared and estimated rates of warhead dismantlement to assess the time it may take to dismantle and destroy current weapon stockpiles, including weapons already scheduled for dismantlement. They focuse on the large arsenals of the United States and Russia, but also discuss other nuclear-armed states. Mian and Kütt’s findings suggest that a TPNW deadline of 10 years for nuclear weapons destruction, with a possible extension of an additional 10 years, may be feasible.
