Sobering study on consequences of India-Pakistan nuclear-war

A new study by Brian Toon, Alan Robock and others, published early October 2019 in Science Advances, provides sobering insight into the consequences of a potential nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

The article “Rapidly Expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe” summarizes the findings of ten scientists that looked at the consequences of a future nuclear war (in 2025) between India and Pakistan. For their modelling, they used a highly simplified scenario in which only urban targets were considered, which were attacked using airburst nuclear weapons (100 by India and 150 by Pakistan) with explosive yields of 15, 50, and 100 kilotons (kt) of TNT. In one scenario, in the most densely populated urban area in Pakistan, a 15 kt airburst at the optimum height to maximize blast damage could kill about 700,000 people and injure another 300,000. With a 100 kt airburst over the same region, roughly 2 million fatalities and an additional 1.5 million non-fatal casualties could occur. Similar numbers would result for nuclear explosions over large Indian cities.

A conflict between India and Pakistan with 50 15-kt weapons used by each nation that generated 5 million metric tons (5 Tg) of black carbon would produce large climate changes. There would also be large ozone losses. The climate changes would be large enough to significantly damage agriculture worldwide. Temperatures would decline to values not seen on Earth since the middle of the last Ice Age, triggered by smoke from burning cities. This would constitute a global disaster threatening food production worldwide and mass starvation, as well as severe disruption to natural ecosystems.