China

DOCTRINE, POLICIES, AND PRACTICE

China maintains a so-called no-first-use policy, meaning that the Chinese government has declared that it will only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack. China has long claimed to rely on a "minimum deterrent", but recent developments suggest that China might be in the process of altering its policy. China has traditionally maintained that it will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states and states in nuclear-weapon-free zones. Having ratified the relevant protocols to the treaties of Tlatelolco, Rarotonga, Pelindaba, and Semipalatinsk, China has legally committed not to use nuclear weapons against the members of the Latin American and Caribbean, South Pacific, African, and Central Asian nuclear-weapon-free zone treaties. China has not ratified the equivalent protocol for the South-East Asian zone.

China is believed not to deploy nuclear warheads on missiles in normal circumstances, but some believe that China has already fitted, or will soon fit, nuclear warheads to missiles on its nascent submarine force. There have also been reports that some Chinese officials are advocating "increasing the readiness of China’s nuclear missiles".[1] China routinely conducts nuclear readiness drills. In January 2019, Chinese state media reported that Chinese forces had simulated the launch of a nuclear-armed ICBM against "an imaginary enemy".[2] In a bid to enhance its second-strike capability, China has positioned much of its land-based strategic forces in hardened bunkers deep inside mountains. That said, China does not appear to have yet adopted a "launch on warning" posture, retaining its traditional "ready the forces on warning" posture.[3]

Since the 1990s, China’s approach to multilateral nuclear disarmament diplomacy has been one of caution. At the UN, China often choses to abstain on controversial resolutions instead of picking a side, a stance that is probably informed by China’s shared history and close relationships with the non-aligned world. In 2016, China was the only permanent member of the UN Security Council to abstain on the vote in the General Assembly that mandated the 2017 negotiation of the TPNW; France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States all voted against.

[1] Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, "Chinese nuclear forces, 2019", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 75, no. 4 (2019).

[2] Liu Xuanzun, "China’s Rocket Force conducts mock ICBM strike exercise", Global Times (22 January 2019), at.

[3] Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, "The Pentagon’s 2019 China Report", Federation of American Scientists (6 May 2019).

* Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, "Status of World Nuclear Forces", Federation of American Scientists, at.

** Arms Control Association, "The Nuclear Testing Tally" (updated September 2017).

*** Shannon N. Kile and Hans M. Kristensen , "World Nuclear Forces", SIPRI Yearbook 2018, Chapter 6.