Democratic People's Republic of Korea

DOCTRINE, POLICIES, AND PRACTICE

North Korean officials have occasionally made statements that have been interpreted to go in the direction of a no-first-use policy. For example, in May 2016, the North Korean news agency quoted Kim Jong-un, the supreme leader of North Korea, as having averred that North Korea will not use a nuclear weapon unless North Korea’s sovereignty is "encroached upon by any aggressive hostile forces with nukes".[1] Other statements have suggested that North Korea might be willing to use nuclear weapons preemptively. In March 2016, for example, in reaction to the commencement of a US–South Korean military exercise, North Korea threatened a "pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice" and to turn Washington and Seoul into "flames and ashes".[2] Most analysts believe that the North Korean regime will use nuclear weapons to protect itself against any perceived threat to its survival.

In August 2017, US President Donald Trump contended that North Korea "best not make any more threats to the United States", adding that "they [North Korea] will be met with fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before."[3] Many feared war was imminent. Instead, Trump and Kim met for a high-level summit in Singapore on 12 June 2018. North Korea committed to "work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula". The US administration represented this as a significant diplomatic victory. In reality, the summit declaration added little if anything to North Korea’s standing policy.

North Korea has executed a number of nuclear and missile tests in recent years, attracting widespread criticism from other governments. Over the course of 2018 and 2019, North Korea has conducted at least 9 ballistic missile tests, some of them involving multiple missiles (i.e. multiple missiles launched on a single day). North Korea has not carried out any nuclear or longrange ballistic missile tests since 2017, focusing instead on developing its short-range missiles. North Korea’s nuclear-weapon programme should be considered as a nuclear weapon and missile development programme rather than a programme to "modernise" existing forces. Unlike other nuclear-armed states that have used bomber aircraft as their initial delivery means, North Korea has so far concentrated its efforts on the development of ballistic missiles (short, medium, and long-range).

[1] BBC, "North Korea ‘will not use nuclear weapons’ unless threatened" (8 May 2016).

[2] The Guardian (AP), "North Korea threatens to reduce US and South Korea to ‘Flames and Ash’" (7 March 2016).

[3] Peter Baker and Choe Sang-Hun, "Trump Threatens ‘Fire and Fury’ Against North Korea if It Endangers U.S.", New York Times (8 August 2017).

* Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, "Status of World Nuclear Forces", Federation of American Scientists.

** Arms Control Association, "The Nuclear Testing Tally" (updated September 2017).

*** Shannon N. Kile and Hans M. Kristensen , "World Nuclear Forces", SIPRI Yearbook 2018, Chapter 6.